Multiscale Statistical Properties of a High-Resolution Precipitation Forecast
نویسندگان
چکیده
Small-scale (less than ;15 km) precipitation variability significantly affects the hydrologic response of a basin and the accurate estimation of water and energy fluxes through coupled land–atmosphere modeling schemes. It also affects the radiative transfer through precipitating clouds and thus rainfall estimation from microwave sensors. Because both land–atmosphere and cloud–radiation interactions are nonlinear and occur over a broad range of scales (from a few centimeters to several kilometers), it is important that, over these scales, cloudresolving numerical models realistically reproduce the observed precipitation variability. This issue is examined herein by using a suite of multiscale statistical methods to compare the scale dependence of precipitation variability of a numerically simulated convective storm with that observed by radar. In particular, Fourier spectrum, structure function, and moment-scale analyses are used to show that, although the variability of modeled precipitation agrees with that observed for scales larger than approximately 5 times the model resolution, the model shows a falloff in variability at smaller scales. Thus, depending upon the smallest scale at which variability is considered to be important for a specific application, one has to resort either to very high resolution model runs (resolutions 5 times higher than the scale of interest) or to stochastic methods that can introduce the missing small-scale variability. The latter involve upscaling the model output to a scale approximately 5 times the model resolution and then stochastically downscaling it to smaller scales. The results of multiscale analyses, such as those presented herein, are key to the implementation of such stochastic downscaling methodologies.
منابع مشابه
Analysis of drought situation in Iran using ECMWF precipitation product
Drought is one of the natural disasters occurring over a long period of time compared to other natural phenomena which intermittently impedes human societies through the negative impacts on water and agricultural resources and subsequently the economy. One of the methods of drought monitoring is the use of drought indices such as SPI. In this study, SPI index was used to study drought over the ...
متن کاملA FEM Multiscale Homogenization Procedure using Nanoindentation for High Performance Concrete
This paper aims to develop a numerical multiscale homogenization method for prediction of elasto-viscoplastic properties of a high performance concrete (HPC). The homogenization procedure is separated into two-levels according to the microstructure of the HPC: the mortar or matrix level and the concrete level. The elasto-viscoplastic behavior of individual microstructural phases of the matrix a...
متن کاملTitle Climatologies at high resolution for the Earth land surface areas Authors
High resolution information of climatic conditions is essential to many application in environmental sciences. Here we present the CHELSA algorithm to downscale temperature and precipitation estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) climatic reanalysis interim (ERA-Interim) to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The algorithm for temperature is based on a statist...
متن کاملThe Dependence of Ensemble Dispersion on Analysis–Forecast Systems: Implications to Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Precipitation
The impact of differences in analysis–forecast systems on dispersion of an ensemble forecast is examined for a case of cyclogenesis. Changes in the dispersion properties between two 25-member ensemble forecasts with different cumulus parameterization schemes and different initial analyses are compared. The statistical significance of the changes is assessed. Error growth due to initial conditio...
متن کاملDevelopment of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties: 1. Methodology and evaluation
We produce fine-resolution, three-dimensional fields of meteorological and other variables for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system is implemented in a multiscale data assimilation (MS-DA) framework that is used within the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a cloud-reso...
متن کامل